Luke Gromen

FFTT

Luke Gromen is the founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT), the macro research firm he started in 2014. A CFA charterholder with more than two decades in equity research, he was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, and his work connects global macro, currency, and energy flows into a bigger picture for investors.

Grade F

• 24 Predictions
• 0 Right
• 1 Wrong

Current predictions

• Gold: Luke is bullish on gold over the long term. (updated 2026-11-05) Source: Potential impact of stocks on consumer spending, etc.. Price at prediction: $4,086. -2.3% since initial prediction.
• Gold: Luke is bullish on gold, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-03) Source: Luke Gromen: Why Gold Could Hit $18,000 as the U.S. Dollar Faces a Crisis. Price at prediction: $4,146. -3.7% since initial prediction.
• Intermediate Treasuries: Luke is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-22) Source: Gold backed bonds; Japan v China gold imports. Price at prediction: $88.97. -2.2% since initial prediction.
• Bitcoin: Luke is bullish on Bitcoin, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-08) Source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?. Price at prediction: $80,680. -7.6% since this prediction.
• Bitcoin: Luke is bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. (updated 2026-08-20) Source: Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen. Price at prediction: $63,853. +16.8% since initial prediction.
• Long-Term Treasuries: Luke is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-08) Source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?. Price at prediction: $82.24. +1.6% since initial prediction.
• Silver: Luke is bullish on silver, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-08) Source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?. Price at prediction: $59.30. -12.7% since this prediction.
• US Dollar: Luke is bullish on the US Dollar, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-07) Source: Title of 9/29/26 FFTT: "Sharply higher real rates trigger chaotic US Net International Investment Position unwind." Pla…. Price at prediction: $102.34. +0.6% since this prediction.
• S&P 500: Luke is bearish on the S&P 500, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-07) Source: Title of 9/29/26 FFTT: "Sharply higher real rates trigger chaotic US Net International Investment Position unwind." Pla…. Price at prediction: 7,776 points. +2.0% since this prediction.
• S&P 500: Luke is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term. (updated 2026-07-23) Source: Iran war resumption; what I got wrong and right to-date. Price at prediction: 7,408 points. -2.9% since this prediction.
• Oil: Luke is bullish on oil, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-07-23) Source: Iran war resumption; what I got wrong and right to-date. Price at prediction: $92.09. -6.2% since this prediction.

Prediction history

• Gold: 2026-11-05 — Luke is bullish on gold over the long term. (source: Potential impact of stocks on consumer spending, etc.) Price at prediction: $4,116.
• Gold: 2026-11-03 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Luke Gromen: Why Gold Could Hit $18,000 as the U.S. Dollar Faces a Crisis) Price at prediction: $3,914.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-22 — Luke is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Gold backed bonds; Japan v China gold imports) Price at prediction: $91.23.
• Gold: 2026-10-08 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?) Price at prediction: $4,157.
• Silver: 2026-10-08 — Luke is bullish on silver. (source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?) Price at prediction: $59.30.
• Bitcoin: 2026-10-08 — Luke is bullish on Bitcoin. (source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?) Price at prediction: $80,680.
• Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-08 — Luke is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: Does the Administration believe they can inflate US debt to sustainability?) Price at prediction: $77.76.
• US Dollar: 2026-10-07 — Luke is bullish on the US Dollar. (source: Title of 9/29/26 FFTT: "Sharply higher real rates trigger chaotic US Net International Investment Position unwind." Pla…) Price at prediction: $102.34.
• S&P 500: 2026-10-07 — Luke is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: Title of 9/29/26 FFTT: "Sharply higher real rates trigger chaotic US Net International Investment Position unwind." Pla…) Price at prediction: 7,776 points.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-07 — Luke is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Title of 9/29/26 FFTT: "Sharply higher real rates trigger chaotic US Net International Investment Position unwind." Pla…) Price at prediction: $88.97.
• Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-09-08 — Luke is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: Implication of this headline for investors, in plain speak: Inflation is going WAY higher over time if this continues;…) Price at prediction: $82.24.
• Gold: 2026-09-03 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Why the US Fiscal Crisis Is Unavoidable (And Scott Bessent Can't Stop It)) Price at prediction: $4,536.
• Gold: 2026-08-28 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Some quick thoughts on gold, BTC, and "my framework") Price at prediction: $4,629.
• Gold: 2026-08-20 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen) Price at prediction: $4,575.
• Bitcoin: 2026-08-20 — Luke is bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. (source: Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervention Is Just The Beginning | Luke Gromen) Price at prediction: $72,660.
• Gold: 2026-08-07 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Preparations continue for “changes not seen in 100 years” - a.k.a. for gold to resume its role as the world’s primary/s…) Price at prediction: $4,401.
• Bitcoin: 2026-08-03 — Luke is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (through Oct 2026) and bullish over the long term. (source: The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen) Price at prediction: $63,853.
• Gold: 2026-08-03 — Luke is bullish on gold over the long term. (source: The Fed Can’t Let the AI Bubble Burst | Luke Gromen) Price at prediction: $4,086.
• Gold: 2026-07-28 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: Why Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis | Luke Gromen) Price at prediction: $4,021.
• Oil: 2026-07-23 — Luke is bullish on oil. (source: Iran war resumption; what I got wrong and right to-date) Price at prediction: $92.09.
• S&P 500: 2026-07-23 — Luke is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term. (source: Iran war resumption; what I got wrong and right to-date) Price at prediction: 7,408 points.
• Bitcoin: 2026-07-23 — Luke is mildly bearish on Bitcoin. (source: Iran war resumption; what I got wrong and right to-date) Price at prediction: $65,143.
• Gold: 2026-07-09 — Luke is bullish on gold. (source: The interaction between fiscal dominance and the geopolitical risk premium) Price at prediction: $4,146.