Jim Welsh

Macro Tides

Author of Macro Tides, the research letter behind his Weekly Technical Review and Monthly Global Economic Report. Forty years of portfolio management sit behind an approach that blends monetary and fundamental analysis with Elliott wave and sentiment work to time turns in stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar. He has been interviewed on CNBC and Fox Business since 1988.

Grade F

• 36 Predictions
• 0 Right
• 1 Wrong

Current predictions

• US Dollar: Jim is bullish on the US Dollar, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh. Price at prediction: $100.98. +2.2% since initial prediction.
• US Dollar: Jim is bullish on the US Dollar over the long term. (updated 2026-11-05) Source: Jim Welsh Says When Good News Makes a Stock Fall, That's the Signal. Price at prediction: $101.30. +1.8% since this prediction.
• Intermediate Treasuries: Jim is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh. Price at prediction: $91.98. +1.9% since the flip.
• Semiconductors: Jim is bullish on semiconductors, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh. Price at prediction: $146.45. +5.8% since this prediction.
• Semiconductors: Jim is bearish on semiconductors in the near term and over the long term. (updated 2026-11-05) Source: Jim Welsh Says When Good News Makes a Stock Fall, That's the Signal. Price at prediction: $173.66. +10.8% since initial near-term prediction.
• S&P 500: Jim is bearish on the S&P 500, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh. Price at prediction: 7,727 points. +1.7% since initial prediction.
• S&P 500: Jim is bearish on the S&P 500 over the long term. (updated 2026-11-06) Source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses. Price at prediction: 7,357 points. -3.2% since this prediction.
• Oil: Jim is bullish on oil, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh. Price at prediction: $82.58. +7.7% since initial prediction.
• Long-Term Treasuries: Jim is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-06) Source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses. Price at prediction: $81.92. +2.7% since this prediction.
• Gold: Jim is bearish on gold, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-06) Source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses. Price at prediction: $4,139. +6.2% since initial prediction.
• Gold: Jim is bullish on gold in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026). (updated 2026-10-09) Source: 10-5 WTR Gold to rebound in the next few weeks GDX - there is a gap at 84.48 from August 6 Green arrow Buy a 25% positi…. Price at prediction: $4,215. -7.9% since this prediction.
• Gold Miners: Jim is bullish on gold miners in the near term. (updated 2026-10-09) Source: 10-5 WTR Gold to rebound in the next few weeks GDX - there is a gap at 84.48 from August 6 Green arrow Buy a 25% positi…. Price at prediction: $88.53. -7.5% since this prediction.
• Gold Miners: Jim is bullish on gold miners, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-22) Source: 9-22 WTR The 38.2% retracement rally from 69.74 to 105.67 is 91.94 GDX fell to 91.19 on September 16 and found support…. Price at prediction: $76.60. +6.9% since initial prediction.
• Magnificent 7: Jim is bullish on the Magnificent 7, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-22) Source: 9-21 WTR Breakout in the Mag 7 could lift it to 80 – 82, up another 10% Buy a 50% position < 73.00 and another 50% belo…. Price at prediction: $72.88. -5.5% since this prediction.

Prediction history

• Oil: 2026-11-11 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $86.64.
• Semiconductors: 2026-11-11 — Jim is bullish on semiconductors. (source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $146.45.
• S&P 500: 2026-11-11 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: 7,522 points.
• US Dollar: 2026-11-11 — Jim is bullish on the US Dollar. (source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $102.25.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-11-11 — Jim is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: U.S. INFLATION INCREASING, DIESEL CRISIS WORSENING - w/ Macro Expert Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $91.04.
• S&P 500: 2026-11-06 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500 over the long term. (source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses) Price at prediction: 7,357 points.
• Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-11-06 — Jim is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses) Price at prediction: $81.92.
• Gold: 2026-11-06 — Jim is bearish on gold. (source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses) Price at prediction: $4,054.
• Oil: 2026-11-06 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses) Price at prediction: $91.45.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-11-06 — Jim is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Jim Welsh: Why Buy-and-Hold Investors Could Face Diversified Losses) Price at prediction: $91.98.
• Oil: 2026-11-05 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: The Iran war isn’t going to end soon and may escalate I simply don’t see how a ‘deal’ to end the war will allow Iran to…) Price at prediction: $87.32.
• Semiconductors: 2026-11-05 — Jim is bearish on semiconductors in the near term. (source: Jim Welsh Says When Good News Makes a Stock Fall, That's the Signal) Price at prediction: $150.35.
• S&P 500: 2026-11-05 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: Jim Welsh Says When Good News Makes a Stock Fall, That's the Signal) Price at prediction: 7,689 points.
• Gold: 2026-11-05 — Jim is bearish on gold. (source: Jim Welsh Says When Good News Makes a Stock Fall, That's the Signal) Price at prediction: $4,139.
• US Dollar: 2026-11-05 — Jim is bullish on the US Dollar over the long term. (source: Jim Welsh Says When Good News Makes a Stock Fall, That's the Signal) Price at prediction: $101.30.
• Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-19 — Jim is bullish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: Bond Market About To Flip: A Major Shakeup Is Coming | Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $79.46.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-19 — Jim is bullish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Bond Market About To Flip: A Major Shakeup Is Coming | Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $90.09.
• S&P 500: 2026-10-19 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: Bond Market About To Flip: A Major Shakeup Is Coming | Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: 7,692 points.
• Semiconductors: 2026-10-19 — Jim is bearish on semiconductors. (source: Bond Market About To Flip: A Major Shakeup Is Coming | Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: $167.29.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-14 — Jim is bullish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Technical analysis suggests that Treasuery yields are topping The Economist is warning that Treasury bonds might blow u…) Price at prediction: $89.71.
• Semiconductors: 2026-10-14 — Jim is bearish on semiconductors over the long term. (source: 10-12 WTR Semiconductors expected to rally to 634 Oct 6, SMH traded up to 639.47 Oct 12 closed at 590.99 As noted last…) Price at prediction: $173.66.
• Gold: 2026-10-09 — Jim is bullish on gold in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026). (source: 10-5 WTR Gold to rebound in the next few weeks GDX - there is a gap at 84.48 from August 6 Green arrow Buy a 25% positi…) Price at prediction: $4,215.
• Gold Miners: 2026-10-09 — Jim is bullish on gold miners in the near term. (source: 10-5 WTR Gold to rebound in the next few weeks GDX - there is a gap at 84.48 from August 6 Green arrow Buy a 25% positi…) Price at prediction: $88.53.
• Gold: 2026-09-29 — Jim is bearish on gold. (source: 9-21 WTR Gold “If Gold closes above 4399, a rally above 4510 is likely, conversely, a decline below 4234 would set up a…) Price at prediction: $4,176.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-28 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: Another reason why a Secular Bear mkt in stocks is coming after AI trade blows up Secular Bear mkt in Treasury bonds be…) Price at prediction: 7,699 points.
• US Dollar: 2026-09-23 — Jim is bullish on the US Dollar. (source: 9-22 WTR Dollar’s RSI generated a Positive Divergence on September 8 Dollar strength in the face of two central banks i…) Price at prediction: $100.98.
• Gold Miners: 2026-09-22 — Jim is bullish on gold miners. (source: 9-22 WTR The 38.2% retracement rally from 69.74 to 105.67 is 91.94 GDX fell to 91.19 on September 16 and found support…) Price at prediction: $97.70.
• Magnificent 7: 2026-09-22 — Jim is bullish on the Magnificent 7. (source: 9-21 WTR Breakout in the Mag 7 could lift it to 80 – 82, up another 10% Buy a 50% position < 73.00 and another 50% belo…) Price at prediction: $72.88.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-09-16 — Jim is mildly bullish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Expected 5% for months Now FWIW? 9-14 WTR The 10-year’s RSI is above 70 and overbought noted by the blue arrows Each ti…) Price at prediction: $90.83.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-08-28 — Jim is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Aug 27 Weekly Technical Review "In the last 3 weeks, the 10-year Treasury yield has tested the 4.75% level 3 times The…) Price at prediction: $92.85.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-27 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: 8-24-26 WTR "A good report from Nvidia can be expected to give SMH a good lift" "Any bounce by the S&P 500 is within th…) Price at prediction: 7,727 points.
• Oil: 2026-08-17 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: Blake and I discussed Sept WTI The rally from 67.12 to 93.50 looks impulsive The decline from 93.50 to 74.23 clearly 3…) Price at prediction: $84.77.
• Magnificent 7: 2026-08-12 — Jim is bearish on the Magnificent 7. (source: 8-10 WTR June 29 WTR, “The Mag 7 ETF oversold RSI below 30 Set up for oversold rally S&P 500 rallied > 7620, Mag 7 ETF…) Price at prediction: $67.73.
• Oil: 2026-08-12 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: 8-10 WTR WTI Crude dropped to 78.43 on August 3 “Unless WTI Crude closes below 75.00, a rally above 85.57 is expected.”…) Price at prediction: $82.58.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-10 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500 in the near term. (source: Investor Called Chips Crash, Now Warns ‘We’re Nearing The End’ Of Stock Rally | Jim Welsh) Price at prediction: 7,753 points.
• Gold Miners: 2026-07-22 — Jim is bullish on gold miners. (source: 7-20 WTR report "GDX has been grinding lower in what appears to be a falling wedge" "GDX new closing low on July 20 70.…) Price at prediction: $76.60.