Author of Macro Tides, the research letter behind his Weekly Technical Review and Monthly Global Economic Report. Forty years of portfolio management sit behind an approach that blends monetary and fundamental analysis with Elliott wave and sentiment work to time turns in stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar. He has been interviewed on CNBC and Fox Business since 1988.
Current predictions
Intermediate Treasuries: Jim is mildly bullish on Intermediate Treasuries. (updated 2026-09-16)
S&P 500: Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (updated 2026-08-27)
S&P 500: Jim is bearish on the S&P 500 in the near term. (updated 2026-08-10)
Magnificent 7: Jim is bearish on the Magnificent 7. (updated 2026-08-12)
Gold Miners: Jim is bullish on gold miners. (updated 2026-07-22)
Prediction history
2026-09-16 — Jim is mildly bullish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Expected 5% for months Now FWIW? 9-14 WTR The 10-year’s RSI is above 70 and overbought noted by the blue arrows Each ti…)
2026-08-28 — Jim is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Aug 27 Weekly Technical Review "In the last 3 weeks, the 10-year Treasury yield has tested the 4.75% level 3 times The…)
2026-08-27 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: 8-24-26 WTR "A good report from Nvidia can be expected to give SMH a good lift" "Any bounce by the S&P 500 is within th…)
2026-08-17 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: Blake and I discussed Sept WTI The rally from 67.12 to 93.50 looks impulsive The decline from 93.50 to 74.23 clearly 3…)
2026-08-12 — Jim is bearish on the Magnificent 7. (source: 8-10 WTR June 29 WTR, “The Mag 7 ETF oversold RSI below 30 Set up for oversold rally S&P 500 rallied > 7620, Mag 7 ETF…)
2026-08-12 — Jim is bullish on oil. (source: 8-10 WTR WTI Crude dropped to 78.43 on August 3 “Unless WTI Crude closes below 75.00, a rally above 85.57 is expected.”…)
2026-08-10 — Jim is bearish on the S&P 500 in the near term. (source: Investor Called Chips Crash, Now Warns ‘We’re Nearing The End’ Of Stock Rally | Jim Welsh)
2026-07-22 — Jim is bullish on gold miners. (source: 7-20 WTR report "GDX has been grinding lower in what appears to be a falling wedge" "GDX new closing low on July 20 70.…)