Darius Dale

42 Macro

Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an online macro research company delivering data-driven macro risk management through the dual lenses of asset allocation and portfolio construction.

Unrated

• 39 Predictions
• 0 Right
• 0 Wrong

Current predictions

• S&P 500: Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Q3–Q4 2026), bullish over the medium term (Nov 2026–Dec 2027), and bearish over the long term. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: The Macro Minute: Does AI have a circular financing problem?. Price at prediction: 7,538 points. -1.1% since initial short-term prediction.
• S&P 500: Darius is bullish on the S&P 500, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-09) Source: The Macro Minute: Would Hegseth's Potential Impeachment Help End the War?. Price at prediction: 7,550 points. +0.9% since this prediction.
• Bitcoin: Darius is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (through Q4 2027) and long term. (updated 2026-11-04) Source: The Macro Minute: What Do the Midterm Results Mean for Investors?. Price at prediction: $69,043. +8.0% since initial medium-term prediction.
• Gold: Darius is bullish on gold over the medium term (through Q4 2027) and long term. (updated 2026-11-04) Source: The Macro Minute: What Do the Midterm Results Mean for Investors?. Price at prediction: $4,581. -12.8% since initial medium-term prediction.
• Gold: Darius is bullish on gold, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-25) Source: Does the Equity Market Remain a Coiled Spring?. Price at prediction: $4,314. -7.5% since this prediction.
• Silver: Darius is bearish on silver in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026). (updated 2026-10-22) Source: The Macro Minute: Is Investor Fatigue Catching Up With Big Tech?. Price at prediction: $54.63. +5.3% since this prediction.
• Long-Term Treasuries: Darius is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries in the short term and bullish over the medium term (2027). (updated 2026-10-13) Source: The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale. Price at prediction: $82.20. +1.6% since this short-term prediction.
• Intermediate Treasuries: Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-25) Source: Does the Equity Market Remain a Coiled Spring?. Price at prediction: $92.31. +1.5% since initial prediction.
• Intermediate Treasuries: Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries in the short term and over the medium term (Sep 2026–Dec 2027). (updated 2026-09-08) Source: The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale. Price at prediction: $92.89. +2.1% since this short-term prediction.
• Diesel: Darius is bullish on diesel, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-02) Source: The Macro Minute: Can the current risk-on Market Regime condition survive 1-2 rate hikes?. Price at prediction: $4.66. -9.8% since this prediction.

Prediction history

• S&P 500: 2026-11-11 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (Nov 2026–Dec 2027). (source: When and How Should Investors Buy the Dip?) Price at prediction: 7,522 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-11-09 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500. (source: The Macro Minute: Would Hegseth's Potential Impeachment Help End the War?) Price at prediction: 7,550 points.
• Gold: 2026-11-04 — Darius is bullish on gold over the medium term (through Q4 2027). (source: The Macro Minute: What Do the Midterm Results Mean for Investors?) Price at prediction: $4,072.
• S&P 500: 2026-11-04 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (through Q4 2027). (source: The Macro Minute: What Do the Midterm Results Mean for Investors?) Price at prediction: 7,689 points.
• Bitcoin: 2026-11-04 — Darius is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (through Q4 2027). (source: The Macro Minute: What Do the Midterm Results Mean for Investors?) Price at prediction: $80,155.
• Gold: 2026-10-26 — Darius is bullish on gold over the medium term (2027). (source: Are We Already in Inning One of a Secular Bear Market?) Price at prediction: $4,007.
• S&P 500: 2026-10-26 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (2027). (source: Are We Already in Inning One of a Secular Bear Market?) Price at prediction: 7,672 points.
• Bitcoin: 2026-10-26 — Darius is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (2027). (source: Are We Already in Inning One of a Secular Bear Market?) Price at prediction: $79,560.
• Silver: 2026-10-22 — Darius is bearish on silver in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026). (source: The Macro Minute: Is Investor Fatigue Catching Up With Big Tech?) Price at prediction: $54.63.
• Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-13 — Darius is bullish on Long-Term Treasuries over the medium term (2027). (source: The Macro Minute: CXMT’s Breakthrough Threatens Global Chipmakers) Price at prediction: $78.35.
• S&P 500: 2026-10-09 — Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (Jul 2027–Jun 2028). (source: MUST READ of the week—perhaps year: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/revenue-potential-taxes-top. Our friend @tomkee…) Price at prediction: 7,811 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-10-01 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term. (source: Are Bessent, Warsh, and Zervos Cooking Up a Fed-Treasury Accord 2.0?) Price at prediction: 7,654 points.
• Gold: 2026-10-01 — Darius is bullish on gold over the medium term (Dec 2027). (source: Are Bessent, Warsh, and Zervos Cooking Up a Fed-Treasury Accord 2.0?) Price at prediction: $4,209.
• Bitcoin: 2026-10-01 — Darius is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (Dec 2027). (source: Are Bessent, Warsh, and Zervos Cooking Up a Fed-Treasury Accord 2.0?) Price at prediction: $83,706.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-28 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (2027). (source: Why Are So Few Investors Positioning for 2027?) Price at prediction: 7,685 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-25 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (Sep 2026–Dec 2027). (source: Does the Equity Market Remain a Coiled Spring?) Price at prediction: 7,704 points.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-09-25 — Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Does the Equity Market Remain a Coiled Spring?) Price at prediction: $89.60.
• Gold: 2026-09-25 — Darius is bullish on gold. (source: Does the Equity Market Remain a Coiled Spring?) Price at prediction: $4,314.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-21 — Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 over the long term. (source: The Macro Minute: How can the US avoid losing the manufactured “AI race” with China?) Price at prediction: 7,764 points.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-09-08 — Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries over the medium term (Sep 2026–Dec 2027). (source: Has the Bond Market Taken Control From Central Banks?) Price at prediction: $92.17.
• Gold: 2026-09-08 — Darius is bullish on gold over the medium term (Sep 2026–Mar 2028). (source: Has the Bond Market Taken Control From Central Banks?) Price at prediction: $4,400.
• Bitcoin: 2026-09-08 — Darius is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (Sep 2026–Mar 2028). (source: Has the Bond Market Taken Control From Central Banks?) Price at prediction: $78,484.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-08 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (Sep 2026–Mar 2028). (source: Has the Bond Market Taken Control From Central Banks?) Price at prediction: 7,674 points.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-09-03 — Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: The Macro Minute: Will faster BOJ rate hikes trigger a correction in global stocks?) Price at prediction: $92.28.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-03 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500. (source: The Macro Minute: Will faster BOJ rate hikes trigger a correction in global stocks?) Price at prediction: 7,748 points.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-09-03 — Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Are Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin About to Bubble Again?) Price at prediction: $92.31.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-03 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (through Q4 2027). (source: Are Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin About to Bubble Again?) Price at prediction: 7,751 points.
• Diesel: 2026-09-02 — Darius is bullish on diesel. (source: The Macro Minute: Can the current risk-on Market Regime condition survive 1-2 rate hikes?) Price at prediction: $4.66.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-01 — Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 over the long term. (source: The Macro Minute: Will Paradigm C, a.k.a. “Run It Hot” break the global bond market?) Price at prediction: 7,631 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-26 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500. (source: The Macro Minute: Is our stock market bubble thesis intact?) Price at prediction: 7,676 points.
• Gold: 2026-08-19 — Darius is bullish on gold over the long term. (source: The Macro Minute: Will Republicans be forced to "tax the rich"?) Price at prediction: $4,581.
• Bitcoin: 2026-08-19 — Darius is bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. (source: The Macro Minute: Will Republicans be forced to "tax the rich"?) Price at prediction: $69,043.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-14 — Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 over the long term. (source: Only Marks, Patsies, and the Foolhardy Are Swimming Naked Henceforth | August 13, 2026) Price at prediction: 7,799 points.
• Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-08-12 — Darius is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries in the short term. (source: The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale) Price at prediction: $92.89.
• Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-08-12 — Darius is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries in the short term. (source: The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale) Price at prediction: $82.20.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-06 — Darius is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term. (source: Is Treasury Policy Buying the Fed More Time?) Price at prediction: 7,711 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-07-28 — Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term. (source: The Macro Minute: Does AI have a circular financing problem?) Price at prediction: 7,427 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-07-06 — Darius is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Q3–Q4 2026) and bullish over the medium term (Q4 2026–Q4 2027). (source: How Much Runway Does This Bull Market Have Left?) Price at prediction: 7,538 points.