Dan Niles

Niles Investment Management

Dan Niles is the founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management, with a Wall Street career that began in 1990 after working as an engineer at Digital Equipment. He previously ran the Satori Fund and co-founded AlphaOne Capital Partners, and publishes annual top-five stock picks that he updates publicly through the year. A frequent CNBC guest, he was named to The Wall Street Journal's All-Star Analysts in 1999 and 2000.

Grade F

• 24 Predictions
• 0 Right
• 2 Wrong

Current predictions

• Oil: Dan is bearish on oil in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (updated 2026-11-08) Source: On @WilfredFrost podcast on Tuesday, I said I was “terrified of what happens on the other side of mid-terms.” Post elec…. Price at prediction: $83.40. -6.7% since initial prediction.
• Apple: Dan is bullish on Apple over the medium term (2027). (updated 2026-11-03) Source: Big Tech Selloff: Dan Niles on What Happens Next. Price at prediction: $296.42. +19.7% since initial prediction.
• Alphabet: Dan is bullish on Alphabet over the medium term (2027). (updated 2026-11-03) Source: Big Tech Selloff: Dan Niles on What Happens Next. Price at prediction: $279.03. +7.0% since this prediction.
• Alphabet: Dan is bullish on Alphabet, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-27) Source: Last wk, Muse from $Meta (+12.9%) & co-Pilot overhaul by $MSFT (+4.5%) drove AI infrastructure strength (SOX Index +6.3…. Price at prediction: $345.90. -13.6% since initial prediction.
• Semiconductors: Dan is bullish on semiconductors in the near term and short term. (updated 2026-10-15) Source: 8x Kospi has declined 5%+ in 1 day w/ closing 14 day RSI <23. It has gained on avg 3.4% the next day and been up 88% of…. Price at prediction: $154.72. +0.2% since initial near-term prediction.
• Semiconductors: Dan is bullish on semiconductors, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-07-19) Source: Every great industrial revolution has had overinvestment due to the potential for riches for the last companies standin…. Price at prediction: $173.71. -10.8% since this prediction.
• S&P 500: Dan is bearish on the S&P 500, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-08) Source: Dan Niles Tilts Bearish: How OpenAI Revenue Revision & Treasury Yields Tell Same Story. Price at prediction: 7,766 points. +2.2% since this prediction.
• S&P 500: Dan is mildly bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Sep–Nov 2026) and bullish over the medium term (Sep 2026–Sep 2027). (updated 2026-09-13) Source: Last wk, oil +9% & ylds +11-26 bps across 2/30 curve w/ S&P/Nas/R2K -0.3%/-0.7%/-2.4%. This wk, I am watching reaction…. Price at prediction: 7,674 points. +1.1% since the flip.
• Meta: Dan is bullish on Meta, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-09-27) Source: Last wk, Muse from $Meta (+12.9%) & co-Pilot overhaul by $MSFT (+4.5%) drove AI infrastructure strength (SOX Index +6.3…. Price at prediction: $648.23. -3.8% since initial prediction.
• Amazon: Dan is bullish on Amazon, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-08-16) Source: Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales)…. Price at prediction: $262.65. +1.8% since this prediction.
• Microsoft: Dan is bullish on Microsoft, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-08-16) Source: Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales)…. Price at prediction: $495.40. +5.6% since this prediction.

Prediction history

• Oil: 2026-11-08 — Dan is bearish on oil in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: On @WilfredFrost podcast on Tuesday, I said I was “terrified of what happens on the other side of mid-terms.” Post elec…) Price at prediction: $90.83.
• Apple: 2026-11-03 — Dan is bullish on Apple over the medium term (2027). (source: Big Tech Selloff: Dan Niles on What Happens Next) Price at prediction: $339.11.
• Alphabet: 2026-11-03 — Dan is bullish on Alphabet over the medium term (2027). (source: Big Tech Selloff: Dan Niles on What Happens Next) Price at prediction: $279.03.
• Semiconductors: 2026-10-15 — Dan is bullish on semiconductors in the near term. (source: 8x Kospi has declined 5%+ in 1 day w/ closing 14 day RSI <23. It has gained on avg 3.4% the next day and been up 88% of…) Price at prediction: $169.36.
• S&P 500: 2026-10-08 — Dan is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: Dan Niles Tilts Bearish: How OpenAI Revenue Revision & Treasury Yields Tell Same Story) Price at prediction: 7,766 points.
• Alphabet: 2026-09-27 — Dan is bullish on Alphabet. (source: Last wk, Muse from $Meta (+12.9%) & co-Pilot overhaul by $MSFT (+4.5%) drove AI infrastructure strength (SOX Index +6.3…) Price at prediction: $343.84.
• Meta: 2026-09-27 — Dan is bullish on Meta. (source: Last wk, Muse from $Meta (+12.9%) & co-Pilot overhaul by $MSFT (+4.5%) drove AI infrastructure strength (SOX Index +6.3…) Price at prediction: $751.90.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-13 — Dan is mildly bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Sep–Nov 2026). (source: Last wk, oil +9% & ylds +11-26 bps across 2/30 curve w/ S&P/Nas/R2K -0.3%/-0.7%/-2.4%. This wk, I am watching reaction…) Price at prediction: 7,656 points.
• Meta: 2026-09-13 — Dan is bullish on Meta. (source: Last wk, oil +9% & ylds +11-26 bps across 2/30 curve w/ S&P/Nas/R2K -0.3%/-0.7%/-2.4%. This wk, I am watching reaction…) Price at prediction: $648.23.
• Apple: 2026-09-13 — Dan is bullish on Apple over the medium term. (source: Last wk, oil +9% & ylds +11-26 bps across 2/30 curve w/ S&P/Nas/R2K -0.3%/-0.7%/-2.4%. This wk, I am watching reaction…) Price at prediction: $332.23.
• S&P 500: 2026-09-03 — Dan is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Sep–Nov 2026) and bullish over the medium term (Sep 2026–Sep 2027). (source: Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps) Price at prediction: 7,667 points.
• Oil: 2026-08-30 — Dan is bearish on oil in the near term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: Last wk, SPX/Nas/R2K +0.5%/+0.8%/-1.5% w/ oil -4%. But a hawkish Warsh on Friday led to a bear flattening of the yield…) Price at prediction: $83.40.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-23 — Dan is mildly bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Aug–Nov 2026). (source: James Carville: “as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Despite Bessent’s efforts, bond ylds increased last…) Price at prediction: 7,674 points.
• Semiconductors: 2026-08-16 — Dan is bullish on semiconductors. (source: Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales)…) Price at prediction: $183.47.
• Amazon: 2026-08-16 — Dan is bullish on Amazon. (source: Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales)…) Price at prediction: $262.65.
• Microsoft: 2026-08-16 — Dan is bullish on Microsoft. (source: Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales)…) Price at prediction: $495.40.
• Alphabet: 2026-08-16 — Dan is bullish on Alphabet. (source: Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 +0.4%/+0.1%/-0.8%. Cooler inflation (CPI, PPI) & economic data (consumer sentiment, retail sales)…) Price at prediction: $345.90.
• S&P 500: 2026-08-09 — Dan is bullish on the S&P 500 in the near term. (source: Last wk, the AI surge post Situational Awareness resolution continued. S&P/NAS/SOX was +3.6%/+5.2%/+9.2%. WTI -8% with…) Price at prediction: 7,756 points.
• Semiconductors: 2026-07-30 — Dan is bullish on semiconductors in the short term. (source: Given a couple of my friends misunderstood my short tweet yesterday, let me clarify. My post on Hynix was to acknowledg…) Price at prediction: $154.72.
• Semiconductors: 2026-07-19 — Dan is bullish on semiconductors. (source: Every great industrial revolution has had overinvestment due to the potential for riches for the last companies standin…) Price at prediction: $173.71.
• S&P 500: 2026-06-20 — Dan is bullish on the S&P 500 in the short term (through 2026). (source: Last wk, the Wednesday FOMC mtg led to a sell-off in both bonds and stocks but Thursday saw a rebound leading to a soli…) Price at prediction: 7,498 points.
• S&P 500: 2026-06-15 — Dan is bullish on the S&P 500 in the short term (through 2026). (source: Congratulations to @ElonMusk on becoming the world's first trillionaire! A reminder that no matter where you started, i…) Price at prediction: 7,548 points.
• Apple: 2026-06-15 — Dan is bullish on Apple over the medium term (2027). (source: Congratulations to @ElonMusk on becoming the world's first trillionaire! A reminder that no matter where you started, i…) Price at prediction: $296.42.