Benjamin Cowen

Into the Cryptoverse

PhD in Engineering, post-doc in computational nuclear materials research at Sandia National Laboratories, turned quantitative macro researcher. Founder of Into The Cryptoverse (ITC), providing data-driven analysis of Bitcoin, crypto, commodities, and stocks through the lens of macroeconomics, liquidity, and market cycles.

Grade F

103 Predictions
4 Right
10 Wrong

Current predictions

Bitcoin: Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term (Nov–Dec 2026) and short term (Nov–Dec 2026), and bullish over the medium term (2027) and long term. (updated 2026-11-11) Source: Bitcoin Falls Below the 50W Moving Average. Price at prediction: $62,471. -19.4% since initial near-term prediction.
Bitcoin: Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-26) Source: With a second weekly close below the May high, Bitcoin is likely to drop to its bull market support band very soon. Not…. Price at prediction: $80,368. +7.2% since the flip.
S&P 500: Benjamin is neutral on the S&P 500 in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026), and bullish in the short term (Nov 2026–Apr 2027) and over the medium term (Nov 2026–Dec 2027). (updated 2026-11-11) Source: NFA Live! Bitcoin Losing Momentum? Fed Fallout & Midterm Market Risks. Price at prediction: 7,718 points. -1.3% since this near-term prediction.
Intermediate Treasuries: Benjamin is bullish on Intermediate Treasuries in the short term, mildly bullish over the medium term (2027), and bearish over the long term. (updated 2026-11-10) Source: When Will Interest Rates Drop?. Price at prediction: $89.06. +2.1% since this short-term prediction.
SpaceX: Benjamin is bullish on SpaceX over the long term. (updated 2026-11-10) Source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers. Price at prediction: $158.70. -11.9% since initial prediction.
Gold: Benjamin is bullish on gold in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026), medium term (Nov 2026–Jun 2027), and over the long term. (updated 2026-11-10) Source: Gold: Dubious Speculation. Price at prediction: $4,423. -9.7% since the flip.
Gold: Benjamin is bullish on gold, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-08-25) Source: US Real Estate Cycles: Dubious Speculation with Jason Pizzino. Price at prediction: $4,696. -15.0% since this prediction.
Silver: Benjamin is bullish on silver over the long term. (updated 2026-11-10) Source: Gold: Dubious Speculation. Price at prediction: $53.20. -2.7% since this prediction.
Silver: Benjamin is bullish on silver, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-06) Source: Silver: Dubious Speculation. Price at prediction: $60.80. -14.9% since this prediction.
Nasdaq: Benjamin is bearish on the Nasdaq in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (updated 2026-11-06) Source: Bitcoin: The Bears Strike Back. Price at prediction: 25,164 points. -1.2% since initial prediction.
Russell 2000: Benjamin is bearish on the Russell 2000, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-11-02) Source: Stock Market Correction: Q4 2026. Price at prediction: 2,806 points. -1.5% since this prediction.
US Dollar: Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026), medium term, and over the long term. (updated 2026-10-30) Source: Bitcoin Q4 Dump (Live Show!). Price at prediction: $99.65. +3.3% since initial short-term prediction.
US Dollar: Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-12) Source: Bitcoin Dominance. Price at prediction: $102.56. +0.4% since this prediction.
Oil: Benjamin is mildly bullish on oil in the short term. (updated 2026-10-30) Source: Bitcoin Q4 Dump (Live Show!). Price at prediction: $103.37. -16.5% since this prediction.
Oil: Benjamin is bullish on oil, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-29) Source: Bitcoin: Post-FOMC. Price at prediction: $102.06. -15.4% since initial prediction.
Long-Term Treasuries: Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-10-29) Source: Bitcoin: Post-FOMC. Price at prediction: $81.03. +0.1% since this prediction.
Long-Term Treasuries: Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026) and bullish in the short term (from Nov 2026). (updated 2026-10-24) Source: Bitcoin: A Precarious Position. Price at prediction: $81.27. +0.4% since initial near-term prediction.
Short-Term Treasuries: Benjamin is mildly bullish on Short-Term Treasuries in the short term (from Nov 2026). (updated 2026-10-12) Source: Bitcoin Dominance. Price at prediction: $81.18. +0.2% since this prediction.
Energy Stocks: Benjamin is bullish on energy stocks, with no stated time horizon. (updated 2026-08-25) Source: Bitcoin Hits $80k: Is All-Time High Next? | Ben Cowen. Price at prediction: $63.67. -0.5% since initial prediction.
Ethereum: Benjamin is bearish on Ethereum in the short term (through Dec 2026). (updated 2026-07-20) Source: Ethereum: Dubious Speculation. Price at prediction: $1,868. -11.3% since initial prediction.

Prediction history

Bitcoin: 2026-11-11 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin Falls Below the 50W Moving Average) Price at prediction: $74,419.
S&P 500: 2026-11-11 — Benjamin is bullish on the S&P 500 over the medium term (Nov 2026–Dec 2027). (source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers (Part 2)) Price at prediction: 7,522 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-11-11 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers (Part 2)) Price at prediction: $73,541.
Bitcoin: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (through Dec 2026). (source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers) Price at prediction: $73,396.
Gold: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is bullish on gold over the medium term (Nov 2026–Jun 2027). (source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers) Price at prediction: $4,035.
SpaceX: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is bullish on SpaceX over the long term. (source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers) Price at prediction: $140.30.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is mildly bullish on Intermediate Treasuries over the medium term (2027) and bearish over the long term. (source: Investing Through the Cycles Conference (A Preview): Live with the Speakers) Price at prediction: $90.94.
Gold: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is bullish on gold in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026) and over the long term. (source: Gold: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $4,138.
Silver: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is bullish on silver over the long term. (source: Gold: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $53.20.
S&P 500: 2026-11-10 — Benjamin is bullish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Nov 2026–Apr 2027). (source: Gold: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: 7,550 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-11-09 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin Falls to the Bull Market Support Band) Price at prediction: $74,763.
Bitcoin: 2026-11-06 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin: The Bears Strike Back) Price at prediction: $75,691.
Nasdaq: 2026-11-06 — Benjamin is bearish on the Nasdaq in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin: The Bears Strike Back) Price at prediction: 24,658 points.
S&P 500: 2026-11-05 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: The Stock Market Faces Reality) Price at prediction: 7,480 points.
S&P 500: 2026-11-02 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Nov 2026–Jan 2027). (source: Stock Market Correction: Q4 2026) Price at prediction: 7,541 points.
Nasdaq: 2026-11-02 — Benjamin is bearish on the Nasdaq in the short term (Nov 2026–Jan 2027). (source: Stock Market Correction: Q4 2026) Price at prediction: 25,164 points.
Russell 2000: 2026-11-02 — Benjamin is bearish on the Russell 2000. (source: Stock Market Correction: Q4 2026) Price at prediction: 2,806 points.
S&P 500: 2026-11-02 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Drew out the path for #SPX 4 months ago. Looks on track to me (typical dump in Q4 of the midterm year). Literally happe…) Price at prediction: 7,542 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-11-02 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Nov–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 74)) Price at prediction: $78,288.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-30 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Q4 2026). (source: Bitcoin: The Q4 Dump is Here) Price at prediction: $77,058.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-30 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Q4 2026). (source: Bitcoin Q4 Dump (Live Show!)) Price at prediction: $77,213.
US Dollar: 2026-10-30 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin Q4 Dump (Live Show!)) Price at prediction: $101.74.
Oil: 2026-10-30 — Benjamin is mildly bullish on oil in the short term. (source: Bitcoin Q4 Dump (Live Show!)) Price at prediction: $103.37.
S&P 500: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is neutral on the S&P 500 in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026). (source: NFA Live! Bitcoin Losing Momentum? Fed Fallout & Midterm Market Risks) Price at prediction: 7,718 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Q4 2026). (source: Bitcoin: Post-FOMC) Price at prediction: $79,739.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: Bitcoin: Post-FOMC) Price at prediction: $81.03.
Oil: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bullish on oil. (source: Bitcoin: Post-FOMC) Price at prediction: $101.42.
S&P 500: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the near term (from Nov 2026). (source: Bitcoin: Post-FOMC) Price at prediction: 7,748 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026). (source: ✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25) ✅-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28) -PCE comes i…) Price at prediction: $79,851.
S&P 500: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: ✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25) ✅-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28) -PCE comes i…) Price at prediction: 7,748 points.
Oil: 2026-10-29 — Benjamin is bullish on oil. (source: ✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25) ✅-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28) -PCE comes i…) Price at prediction: $101.50.
Gold: 2026-10-27 — Benjamin is bullish on gold over the medium term (2027). (source: Gold: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $4,075.
US Dollar: 2026-10-27 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026). (source: Gold: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $102.30.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-26 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Oct–Dec 2026). (source: I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k) ✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confir…) Price at prediction: $79,645.
S&P 500: 2026-10-26 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500. (source: I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k) ✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confir…) Price at prediction: 7,623 points.
Oil: 2026-10-26 — Benjamin is bullish on oil. (source: I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k) ✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) ✅-Fakeout confir…) Price at prediction: $101.32.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-26 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin. (source: With a second weekly close below the May high, Bitcoin is likely to drop to its bull market support band very soon. Not…) Price at prediction: $79,645.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-25 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin and bullish over the long term. (source: Bitcoin: Bears Regaining Control) Price at prediction: $80,368.
Oil: 2026-10-25 — Benjamin is bullish on oil. (source: Bitcoin: Bears Regaining Control) Price at prediction: $102.06.
Bitcoin: 2026-10-24 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin. (source: Bitcoin: A Precarious Position) Price at prediction: $80,508.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-24 — Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026). (source: Bitcoin: A Precarious Position) Price at prediction: $81.34.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-22 — Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries in the near term (Oct–Nov 2026) and bullish in the short term (from Nov 2026). (source: The Fed will likely not raise rates in October. The long-end will likely bounce back up after this into midterms. After…) Price at prediction: $81.27.
S&P 500: 2026-10-18 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Q4 2026). (source: Has the Q4 Equity Correction Finally Arrived?) Price at prediction: 7,659 points.
US Dollar: 2026-10-14 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar over the medium term. (source: Inflation Comes in Hot) Price at prediction: $102.85.
US Dollar: 2026-10-12 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar. (source: Bitcoin Dominance) Price at prediction: $102.56.
Short-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-12 — Benjamin is mildly bullish on Short-Term Treasuries in the short term (from Nov 2026). (source: Bitcoin Dominance) Price at prediction: $81.18.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-08 — Benjamin is bullish on Long-Term Treasuries in the short term. (source: NFA Live! Bond Yields Surge, Crypto Stalls, & is AI Overhyped?) Price at prediction: $77.35.
Silver: 2026-10-06 — Benjamin is bullish on silver. (source: Silver: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $60.80.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-06 — Benjamin is bullish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Silver: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $88.92.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-05 — Benjamin is bullish on Intermediate Treasuries in the short term. (source: When Will Interest Rates Drop?) Price at prediction: $89.06.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-10-05 — Benjamin is bullish on Long-Term Treasuries in the short term (from Nov 2026). (source: I think the long-end of the yield curve will likely start dropping around mid-November (shortly after the midterms).) Price at prediction: $77.49.
SpaceX: 2026-10-02 — Benjamin is bullish on SpaceX over the long term. (source: Payrolls Come in Weak, Unemployment Ticks Higher) Price at prediction: $158.70.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-10-01 — Benjamin is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: The 10Y yield is now at around 5.3% Yields have gone up rapidly since the market became concerned that the Fed was no l…) Price at prediction: $89.31.
Bitcoin: 2026-09-16 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term. (source: Bitcoin Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $75,924.
Gold: 2026-09-15 — Benjamin is bullish on gold over the medium term. (source: Gold: Seeking a Low) Price at prediction: $4,321.
US Dollar: 2026-09-15 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar in the short term (Sep–Dec 2026). (source: Gold: Seeking a Low) Price at prediction: $99.59.
US Dollar: 2026-09-14 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar over the long term. (source: DXY to Move Higher?) Price at prediction: $99.18.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-09-11 — Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: Has the Fed Been Making A Mistake?) Price at prediction: $80.89.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-09-10 — Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: ECB raises interest rates 25 basis points. The Fed is falling behind. The 2 year yield has been going up for most of th…) Price at prediction: $81.74.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-09-04 — Benjamin is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Labor Market Remains Hot) Price at prediction: $92.29.
Gold: 2026-09-01 — Benjamin is bullish on gold in the short term (Sep–Dec 2026) and over the medium term (Sep 2026–Jun 2027). (source: Gold: The Next Big Move) Price at prediction: $4,423.
US Dollar: 2026-09-01 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar in the short term (Sep–Dec 2026). (source: Gold: The Next Big Move) Price at prediction: $99.61.
Gold: 2026-08-25 — Benjamin is bullish on gold. (source: US Real Estate Cycles: Dubious Speculation with Jason Pizzino) Price at prediction: $4,696.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-25 — Benjamin is bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. (source: Bitcoin Hits $80k: Is All-Time High Next? | Ben Cowen) Price at prediction: $80,634.
Gold: 2026-08-25 — Benjamin is bullish on gold over the long term. (source: Bitcoin Hits $80k: Is All-Time High Next? | Ben Cowen) Price at prediction: $4,686.
Energy Stocks: 2026-08-25 — Benjamin is bullish on energy stocks. (source: Bitcoin Hits $80k: Is All-Time High Next? | Ben Cowen) Price at prediction: $63.13.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-20 — Benjamin is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (2027). (source: For those that feel the need to dunk once again, I will remind you that I stated on July 1st (the current low) that the…) Price at prediction: $72,443.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-20 — Benjamin is bullish on Bitcoin over the medium term (2027). (source: Bitcoin Rallies to the Bear Market Resistance Band) Price at prediction: $69,443.
US Dollar: 2026-08-18 — Benjamin is bullish on the US Dollar in the short term (through 2026). (source: The Market is Wrong About the US Dollar) Price at prediction: $99.65.
Energy Stocks: 2026-08-18 — Benjamin is bullish on energy stocks. (source: The Market is Wrong About the US Dollar) Price at prediction: $63.67.
S&P 500: 2026-08-17 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Sep–Oct 2026). (source: The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over) Price at prediction: 7,745 points.
Long-Term Treasuries: 2026-08-17 — Benjamin is bearish on Long-Term Treasuries. (source: The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over) Price at prediction: $81.35.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-08-17 — Benjamin is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over) Price at prediction: $92.84.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-16 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term. (source: Bitcoin: The Winds of Winter) Price at prediction: $62,940.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-13 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Sep–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin: The Next 60 Days) Price at prediction: $63,386.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-10 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Sep–Dec 2026). (source: Bitcoin: It's Almost Crunch Time) Price at prediction: $64,236.
S&P 500: 2026-08-09 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: Something Strange Is Happening in the Labor Market) Price at prediction: 7,758 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-06 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (through Dec 2026) and bullish over the long term. (source: Bitcoin: Where in the Cycle Are We?) Price at prediction: $64,267.
Gold: 2026-08-05 — Benjamin is bullish on gold over the medium term (2027) and long term. (source: Gold Path for 2026 [Update]) Price at prediction: $4,308.
S&P 500: 2026-08-04 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Aug–Dec 2026). (source: Stocks Hit New Highs) Price at prediction: 7,737 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-04 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Sep 2026). (source: Stocks Hit New Highs) Price at prediction: $64,299.
Intermediate Treasuries: 2026-08-04 — Benjamin is bearish on Intermediate Treasuries. (source: Stocks Hit New Highs) Price at prediction: $93.25.
Bitcoin: 2026-08-03 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term (Aug 2026). (source: Bitcoin: A Decision Will be Forced) Price at prediction: $62,621.
Bitcoin: 2026-07-30 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: Bitcoin: The End of July) Price at prediction: $64,711.
Bitcoin: 2026-07-27 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band) Price at prediction: $65,115.
Bitcoin: 2026-07-24 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: Bitcoin: Between a Rock and a Hard Place) Price at prediction: $64,056.
S&P 500: 2026-07-24 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: Bitcoin: Between a Rock and a Hard Place) Price at prediction: 7,408 points.
Gold: 2026-07-22 — Benjamin is bearish on gold in the short term (Jul–Oct 2026). (source: Gold: Midterm Year Weakness) Price at prediction: $4,135.
Ethereum: 2026-07-20 — Benjamin is bearish on Ethereum in the short term (through Dec 2026). (source: Ethereum: Dubious Speculation) Price at prediction: $1,868.
S&P 500: 2026-07-19 — Benjamin is bearish on the S&P 500 in the short term (Aug–Sep 2026). (source: S&P 500: Seasonal Correction Starting in August/September?) Price at prediction: 7,458 points.
Bitcoin: 2026-07-19 — Benjamin is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term. (source: S&P 500: Seasonal Correction Starting in August/September?) Price at prediction: $64,733.
Bitcoin: 2026-07-14 — Benjamin is bullish on Bitcoin and bearish in the short term (Jul–Oct 2026). (source: Understanding This Bitcoin Bear Market) Price at prediction: $62,471.
Gold: 2026-07-13 — Benjamin is bearish on gold in the short term (Jul–Oct 2026) and bullish over the medium term. (source: Gold Path for 2026) Price at prediction: $4,000.